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The K7RA Solar Update

01/05/2018

No sunspots appeared from December 27, 2017 until January 4, 2018. As solar cycle 24 declines to a minimum over the next two years we should see longer and more numerous periods of no sunspots. On January 4, the daily sunspot number was 13, indicating 3 sunspots in one sunspot group, although Spaceweather.com reported no sunspots on that day. The sunspot number for that day was reported by NOAA at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt . A tiny spot appeared on January 5, but it will be gone soon.

 

On January 4 Spaceweather.com reported a stream of solar wind should reach Earth on January 8, triggering some geomagnetic unrest, but nothing severe.

 

Over the recent reporting week (Thursday through Wednesday) the average daily sunspot number declined from 17.4 to zero, while average daily solar flux went from 74.6 to 70.4.

 

Average daily planetary A index declined from 7.1 to 5.1, while average daily mid-latitude A index went from 5.7 to 3.4.

 

Predicted solar flux is 70 on January 5-6, 69 on January 7-8, 68 on January 9-11, 70 on January 12, 72 on January 13-24, 70 on January 25, 68 on January 26-31, 70 on February 1-8, and 72 on February 9-18.

 

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 5-6, then 8, 12 and 7 on January 7-9, 5 on January 10-12, then 22, 16 and 6 on January 13-15, 5 on January 16-19, then 12, 10, 8 and 6 on January 20-23, 5 on January 24-26, then 6, 25, 15 and 8 on January 27-30, 5 on January 31 through February 2, then 10, 12 and 6 on February 3-5, 5 on February 6-8, then 22, 16 and 6 on February 9-11, 5 on February 12-15, then 12, 10 and 8 on February 16-18.

 

 

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 5-January 31, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

 

“Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on January 5, 11, 17-19, 31

Mostly quiet on January 6, 10, 30

Quiet to unsettled on January 12, 15-16, 23-26

Quiet to active on January 7, 20, 22, 27-29

Active to disturbed on January 8-9, 13-14, 21

 

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on January (6-8,) 10-12, (13,) 19-20, (21-22, 28-31).

 

Remark:

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.”

 

 

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

 

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

 

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

 

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

 

 



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