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The K7RA Solar Update

11/30/2018

At 2335 UTC on November 28 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning for December 1. "The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a large and recurrent coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic activity to minor storm levels on December 1 and 2."

Sunspots appeared on only two days over the past reporting week, the weekend of November 24-25, with sunspot numbers of 14 and 15. Average daily sunspot number compared to the previous seven days declined from 9.4 to 4.1, while average daily solar flux went from 70.8 to 68.9.

It seems odd, but both the average daily planetary and mid-latitude A index remained the same as last week’s numbers, 3.3 and 2.1, respectively.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 68 on November 30 through December 12, 70 on December 13-27, 68 on December 28 through January 8, and 70 on January 9-13.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 30, then 24, 28, 12 and 10 on December 1-4, 8 on December 5-6, then 12, 12 and 8 on December 7-9, 5 on December 10-16, 8 on December 17-18, 5 on December 19-22, 8 on December 23-24, 5 on December 25-27, 16 and 24 on December 28-29, 10 on December 30-31, 8 on January 1-2, 12 on January 3-4, 8 on January 5, then 5 on January 6-12 and 8 on January 13.

 

F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 30 to December 26, 2018.

Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on November 30, December 10, 12-15, 19-22, 26

Quiet to unsettled on December 16, 18, 23, 25

Quiet to active on December 3-4, 9, 11, 24

Unsettled to active on December 1, (5-6,) 7-8, 17

Active to disturbed on December 2

Solar wind will intensify on November 30 and on December 1-3, (4-6,) 7-9, (10-12, 15-18,) 24-25

Remark: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

 

Here is the latest video from Dr. Skov: https://youtu.be/GXKTsNMMkug

 

Mark Lunday, WD4ELG, reported last Friday, November 23 (too late for last week’s bulletin) in a message titled “Excellent Conditions on the Higher Bands,” I’ve been running FT8 on 15 meters, barefoot with a dipole antenna, and have easily worked 5R8 (Malagasy) and 3B8 (Mauritius).  I Also copied FR (Europa, San Juan de Nova, Glorioso, Tromelin or Reunion Island).  While Europe has been heard daily, and even ZS (South Africa) at least 2 or 3 times a week, it has been awhile since I heard Indian Ocean on 15 meters.”

 

Steve Sacco, NN4X, of Saint Cloud, Florida reported, “I made contact with 4K6FO (Azerbaijan) on 160 meters during the CQ Worldwide CW contest on 11/24 at 0340Z.

“It was an amazing little opening. I was listening to him for a bit as his signal slowly got stronger, and then I commenced calling him. I noticed that no one in North America was doing the same, which was odd. I was able to work him, and I stuck around to listen for a bit and noticed that still there were no calls from North America. I learned later that he had failed to work anyone in the western hemisphere, except me, on 160 meters during the contest.”

 

Jeff, N8II, reported from West Virginia concerning the CQ Worldwide CW contest last weekend: "We sort of hit a new low in the CQ Worldwide CW contest this past weekend as I was not able to work any DX on 10 meters. Some guys in the US reported less than 5 DX contacts on the band. Fifteen meters was worse than last year, but strangely, as in the CQ Worldwide phone contest, there was a 15-meter opening to Scandinavia east to the Baltic States. Twenty meters was great into Europe; wide open from before 1200Z until starting to fading around 1700Z.

“K3LR reported 11 DX contacts plus 2 Canadians (probably nearby in Ontario) on 10 meters, which means it was pretty close to dead by his standards."

Later Jeff reported: “During the contest, 160-meter signals seemed much worse than some years. Little was heard outside of the US and Canada. Most of my contacts were with the Caribbean and northern edge of South America. A few of the loudest European stations (including 1 Russian) heard me, but there nothing from the Pacific. The big guns did well on 160, with 96 countries worked at K3LR.

“I had noise on 80 meters that was loud enough to cover the weakest stations, but many that I could hear could not copy me. Europe is much louder here in November when the solar flux is higher. Working the West Africans was easy. Sunrise on Sunday was poor, although I did work 2 Hawaiians. I never tried much CQing, knowing it would not bear fruit. The noise did not hurt the results much. K3LR worked 122 countries and with a total of 1558 contacts on 80 meters.

“Signals on 40 meters at around sunset on Saturday were weak. By 2400Z, southern Europe sounded much better. Sunrise on Sunday was disappointing on the band with no readable Japanese stations. I could not work anything from Asia, although I heard Finland, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and western Asiatic Russia on long path. All weekend, conditions seemed poor or closed to northern Europe on 40 meters. Western Africa was loud on the band and I worked Morocco, Canary Islands, and Madeira Island. There were many Caribbean and South Americans with good to loud signals.

“Twenty meters was definitely my money band. Between about 1145Z and 1630Z conditions to Europe were superb on both days with no fading. On Saturday afternoon, we were treated to extended hours into Europe with good signals. It was amazing to work Russians at bottom of cycle near midnight their time, probably due to some auroral sporadic-E propagation! The opening favored farther west in North America, but I picked up Aland Island and Kazakhstan. At the same time, conditions were excellent to all of Africa with activity from all CQ Zones except Zone 34 (Libya/Egypt), the Caribbean and South America with many countries added to my log.

“Notable rare countries logged were Rwanda, Madagascar, Senegal, Kenya, Uganda, and Fernando de Noronha Island. There were a few Japanese around sunset, but signals were down from just before the contest. Micronesia was worked. Sunday afternoon, I worked A35, Tonga short path (very weak), FK8, New Caledonia and VK2, Australia on long path. I finished with 929 20-meter contacts.

“Fifteen meters was frustrating, but interesting for sure. I made almost 100 contacts, which was less than last year, and worked 8 fewer multipliers compared to last year. I caught Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Russia and farther south Ukraine and Moldova (first contact of the day at 1233Z) on Sunday. Best conditions were in the 1400Z hour. I also had good luck with Africa, contacting both 5R, Madagascar, and 3B8, Mauritius, in CQ Zone 39, Senegal in Zone 35, Rwanda in Zone 36, South Africa in Zone 38, and many in Zone 33 in northwest Africa. I could not break the OX, Greenland pile up, even though he had an S9 signal to me. Signals from Germany west to England were marginal, so the openings were of a spotlight nature. The Pacific was punk, with nothing other than Hawaii and New Zealand worked. Skip was generally quite long to the south making the northern Caribbean difficult to work."

 

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for November 22 through 28, 2018 were 0, 0, 14, 15, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 4.1. 10.7 cm flux was 69.2, 69.2, 70, 69.6, 68.6, 68.4, and 67.5, with a mean of 68.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 4, 3, 2, 5, and 3, with a mean of 3.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, 4, and 2, with a mean of 2.1.

 

 



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