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The K7RA Solar Update

06/07/2019

According to Spaceweather.com, as of June 5 there have been no sunspots for 17 days in a row. Average daily solar flux went to 69.5 this reporting week (May 30 through June 5) from 67.4 in the previous seven days. Average daily planetary A index declined from 7.3 to 5.6, while mid-latitude A index went from 8.1 to 5.

Last week I mentioned that sunspots should return soon, based on the predicted solar flux, but those projections have softened. On June 6 the 45-day predicted solar flux was 70 on June 7-14, 72, 72 and 71 on June 15-17, 70 on June 18-29, 71 on June 30, 72 on July 1-13, 71 on July 14, and 70 on July 15-21.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 10 and 8 on June 7-9, 5 on June 10-22, then 8, 10, 12 and 8 on June 23-26, 5 on June 27-29, 8 on June 30 through July 2, 5 on July 3-4, 8 on July 5-6, 5 on July 7-19, then 8 and 10 on July 20-21.

Spaceweather.com sent this alert on June 5: "A DAYTIME METEOR SHOWER IS UNDERWAY: Radars in the northern hemisphere are pinging with activity as one of the strongest meteor showers of the year takes place in broad daylight. The source of the shower is sun-grazing Comet 96P/Machholz."

Dick Bingham, W7WKR, alerted us to this, and wrote: "What a fine six-meter opening this afternoon! I copied many of you on FT8 working across the country. The one I really would have enjoyed capturing was NW1P in FN67 - probably the only person in the USA there. Listening to all the meteor-echoes was impressive. Seemed like up to 10 per minute for a while.”

Jon Jones, N0JK, wrote: "I enjoyed reading N8II's detailed report of his activity in the WPX CW this year. I noted his rare Hawaiian contact on 10-meters described in the W1AW bulletin at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP022/2019 .

“Six meters was also open from Hawaii to the mainland USA on May 25. At almost the exact same time Jeff worked WH7V on 10 meters, VE2XK worked NH6Y on 6 meters:

NH6Y  19/05/25 1859Z  50313.0 FN07 ES BL10 TU FT8 qso & grid  VE2XK
NH6Y  19/05/25 1857Z  50313.0 DN70MQ ES BL10TS                K0GU

“No Hawaii contacts from here in Kansas, but I logged KP4EIT and KP4AJ on 6-meter FT8 at about 2000 UTC on May 25."

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 7 to July 3, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on June 13, 16-18, 28, 30, July 1, 3
Quiet to unsettled on 8, 10-11, 14, 19-22, 27, 29
Quiet to active on June (12, 15,) 26, July 2
Unsettled to active on June (7, 9,) 23-25
No active to disturbed days expected.

Solar wind will intensify on June 10-14, 24-27

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Lance Collister, W7GJ, of Frenchtown, Montana is interested in 6 meter moonbounce, and runs a Magic Band EME email group, which you can subscribe to via his web site at http://www.bigskyspaces.com/w7gj/

Here is the latest video from Dr. Skov: https://youtu.be/dWwCxWEK1EQ

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for May 30 through June 5, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.7, 68.7, 69.7, 69.9, 69.8, 70, and 69.8, with a mean of 69.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 5, 4, 4, 5, 8, and 5, with a mean of 5.6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 5, 3, 4, 4, 7, and 4, with a mean of 5.

 



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