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The K7RA Solar Update

06/05/2020

Two new sunspots emerged this week, with a one-day gap on Tuesday with no sunspot. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 0 last week to 3.3 in this week, May 28 through June 3.

It seems odd, but average daily solar flux was 69.6, unchanged from the previous seven days. Average daily planetary A index rose from 4 to 6, but average middle latitude A index was 5.7, same as last week.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 72 on June 5-12, 70 on June 13-20, 71 on June 21 to July 4, 70 on July 5-17, and 71 on July 18-19.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 5 through July 19. That’s right, quiet with the A index at 5 on every single day over the next six and a half weeks.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 5-30, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: June 5, 10, 12-13, 19, 22-25, 27, 30
quiet to unsettled on: June 6-7, (8-9,) 11, 14-18, 20-21, 28-29
quiet to active on: (June 26)
unsettled to active on: nothing predicted
active to disturbed: nothing predicted

Solar wind will intensify on June (6-7, 16-17, 26-29)

Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no indications.

Jim Wilson, K5ND, noted on June 1: "I’m sure you’ve heard already about the extraordinary six meter activity this past weekend. I’ve heard about a big opening early Sunday morning from the Pacific Northwest into Alaska and Japan. Later that morning I experienced a big opening into Europe from here in North Texas. With 140 watts and 3-element Yagi at 20 feet I managed to work 7 new DXCC entities. Was that ever exciting. Here’s my full write up:
https://www.k5nd.net/2020/05/magic-band-europe-opening-may-31-2020/

Steve Sacco, NN4X, reported on May 30: “We had some fascinating conditions Friday evening, before and at the start of the WPX CW.

“Before the contest, folks were reporting hearing/working Europe on 10 meters here on the east coast, which is late, even during the top of the sunspot cycle.

“In central Florida, we experienced tremendous lightning noise at the start of the contest, but awhile later, I was stunned to hear and work Europe, coming from the west! Hawaii was also strong.

“I've been licensed and continually active since 1977, and do not recall that I've ever observed prop to Europe on 15 meters at that time of night, and on that  path.

“It would be interesting to see what others have reported, and to better understand the cause of this opening.

Mike Galler, WD5JTZ, has returned after being off the air for the past 35 years, and notices increased static, particularly on 80 meters. I replied that one problem which has increased over the past few decades is RFI from a proliferating number of consumer electronics devices that radiate lots of garbage and are non-compliant with FCC Part 15 rules covering incidental radiation. I am experiencing this with a nearby rooftop solar electric array which is tied into the local electric power grid.

Noise will increase seasonally as we transition into summer, but one positive factor is the extremely low amount of geomagnetic activity. This is related to very low solar activity, and has contributed to favorable conditions on 160 meters.

On May 29, Richard Ferry, K2KA, of Westford, Massachusetts wrote: “Yesterday we had another epic opening to Europe on 6-meter FT8. There were many signals. I worked TK5MH for a new one and copied ZB2GI but did not work.

“It started before 2000z and went for an hour or more. Signals were strong and steady; +00 to -10 dB on average.”


For more information concerning radio propagation, see 
http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for May 28 through June 3, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, 0, and 12, with a mean of 3.3. 10.7 cm flux was 67.5, 69.6, 70, 70.8, 69.2, 70.4, and 70, with a mean of 69.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 14, 4, 6, 7, and 4, with a mean of 6. Middle latitude A index was 2, 4, 13, 4,

 



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