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The K7RA Solar Update

02/04/2022

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Our sun was much more active over the past week, with average daily sunspot number more than doubling from 39.6 in the previous week to 81.3 in the current January 27 – February 2 reporting week.

Geomagnetic indicator average daily Planetary A index changed from 8.3 to 10.1, while average middle latitude A index was unchanged at 6.4.

Predicted solar flux for the near term is 126, 130, and 125 on February 4 – 6; 120 on February 7 – 10; 128 on February 11 – 12; 125 on February 13 – 14; 120 on February 15 – 17; 128 on February 18 – 21; 125 on February 22 – 25; 128 on February 26; 132 on February 27 – 28; 135 on March 1 – 3; 125 on March 4 – 7; 128 on March 8 – 11, and 125 on March 12 – 13.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 20, 18, and 10 February 4 – 7; 5 on February 8 – 10; 8 on February 11; 5 on February 12 – 16; then 10, 12, 8, and 5 on February 17 – 20; 10, 8, 5, and 8 on February 21 – 24; 12, 8, 5, and 8 on February 25 – 28; 10, 5, and 5 on March 1 – 3; 20 and 12 on March 4 – 5; 5 on March 6 – 8; then 12 and 8 on March 9 – 10; 5 on March 11 – 15, and 10, 12, and 8 on March 16 – 18.

This is the “Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth’s Ionosphere, February 3, 2022” from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

“The solar radio flux of 130 and the daily sunspot number up to 100 at the end of January, compared to the equal heliographic length in past solar rotations, showed the unreliability of 27-day quasi-periodicity as the guideline for predictions. The M1 solar flare in AR2936 on January 29 was also a surprise because of the magnetic configuration. On the contrary, it was no surprise that the accompanied LDE, which triggered halo CME, was followed by an intensification of the solar wind and an increase in Earth’s geomagnetic field activity. A major storm was expected on February 2, but it arrived a day later and included major changes in the parameters of Earth’s ionosphere in the form of its positive phase, around 1200 UTC.”

Here is an interesting new Solar Cycle 25 update, thanks to K9LA and K1HTV.

Via Spaceweather.com comes this comment from Dr. Ron Turner of ANSER Research Institute in Virginia, who thinks it may be too early to expect a strong Solar Cycle 25.

This graph shows why Turner is skeptical.

“Solar Cycle 25 is doing something interesting. It is mimicking old Solar Cycle 24 (SC24),” he said. “I took sunspot numbers from the early years of SC24 (the red dashed line) and overlaid them on SC25 [and] they’re an almost perfect match.”

This is significant because Solar Cycle 24 went on to become the weakest solar cycle in a century. Its hot start did not lead to a strong maximum. Turner isn’t saying that Solar Cycle 25 will likewise be a dud. But, rather, “these early sunspot numbers are not enough to guarantee a strong cycle.”

David Moore shared this article in Science Daily about a big solar event more than 9,000 years ago that was discovered via ice core analysis.

Here’s an update from Space Weather Woman Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

Sunspot numbers for January 27 – February 2 were 85, 77, 74, 70, 100, 88, and 75, with a mean of 81.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 107.1, 113.4, 125.3, 129.6, 129.5, 128.6, and 128.2, with a mean of 123.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 17, 10, 10, 7, and 12, with a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 7, 7, 3, 10, and 8, with a mean of 6.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check this propagation page by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

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