ARRL

ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP003 (2007)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP03
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3  ARLP003
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  January 19, 2007
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot numbers for the week were down 16 points to
27.4 from the previous week. Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled
on Monday through Wednesday, January 15-17. For the near term don't
look for any radical changes in activity, with the next period of
moderate geomagnetic activity set for January 30. Expect geomagnetic
conditions to become progressively quieter over the next few days.
Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled conditions for
today, January 19, quiet to unsettled January 20 and 21, and quiet
on January 22-25.

Bill Van Alstyne, W5WVO of Rio Rancho, New Mexico wrote to say that
this winter's 6-meter E-layer propagation season has been poor.
East Coast operators have had one or two more openings than western
states. Bill has counted three openings in New Mexico, on December
8-9, December 12-13, and January 8-9. "The guys I have worked in the
northwest, north-central, south-central, and midwest states have all
said the same thing about their Es experiences thus far this winter:
Lousy."

Bill's 6-meter QSOs have been running close to 70 percent behind
last year's, with only 50 so far, but 160 at this time in 2006.
Bill notes that 6-meter operators he's talked to in the Northwest,
North Central, Midwest and South Central states are reporting the
same experience.

546 miles east-northeast of Bill in Wichita, Kansas, Jon Jones, N0JK
is quite excited about the January 8-9 6-meter opening. He says it
sounded like a summer opening at times, and on one occasion he had
stations from the 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 and 8 call areas coming in at the
same time. On January 9 on 2-meters, Kansas and Oklahoma stations
worked North Carolina and Florida. Jon worked XE1MM and XE3ARV on
6-meter CW on January 9, and he noted that XE3ARV is about 2300 km
(a little over 1400 miles) from him.

Ray Parker, ND6S of Sutter Creek, California wrote to report the fun
he's had at the bottom of the solar cycle working Africa on 15 and
20 meters this month. 100 watts worked 3DA0TM in Swaziland on
January 4 at 2109z on 20 meters and XT2C in Burkina Faso on January
11 at 1824z on 15 meters with great signals. Running the average
sunspot numbers during those times through propagation prediction
software for the paths to Burkina Faso and Swaziland from W6 showed
those were good times of the day for that propagation.

Dave Mays, W8UI of Saint Marys, West Virginia mentioned a
"Handiman's Guide to Solar Activity and HF Propagation for the
QRPer" by Paul Harden, NA5N, that Dave read about in the ARRL
Contest Rate Sheet. The guide is carried on the web by the GQRP Club
at, http://www.interalia.plus.com/SOLAR_HO.pdf. The GQRP web site is
at, http://www.interalia.plus.com/. This single-sheet resource
illustrates sunspot groups and has a guide to geomagnetic indices
and storms.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at,
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly
propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Sunspot numbers for January 11 through 17 were 45, 33, 36, 27, 16,
18 and 17 with a mean of 27.4. 10.7 cm flux was 83.9, 83.8, 81.4,
82.1, 82, 78.7, and 78.1, with a mean of 81.4. Estimated planetary A
indices were 6, 3, 1, 2, 22, 13 and 26 with a mean of 10.4.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 2, 0, 2, 14, 9 and 15, with
a mean of 6.6.
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/EX