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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP023 (2017)

ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23  ARLP023
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 9, 2017
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

Big event this week was multiple sporadic-E linkups on 6 meters
Average daily sunspot number rose this week from 15.6 to 19.3. This
was largely due to the fact that there was one zero-sunspot day last
week, and no days with zero sunspots this week.
Average daily A index, planetary and mid-latitude were both 5.6 this
week. Last week they were 13.3 and 10.6.
Predicted solar flux is 72 on June 9 and 10, 75 on June 11 to 13, 72
on June 14 and 15, 78 on June 16 to 26, 80 on June 27 to July 1, 78
on July 2 to 8, 80 on July 9, and 78 on July 10 to 23.
Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on June 9 to 11, 8 on June 12
and 13, 5, 12, 25 and 10 on June 14 to 17, 8 on June 18 and 19, 5 on
June 20 to July 10, then 10, 12, 25 and 10 on July 11 to 14, 8 on
July 15 and 16, and 5 on July 17 to 23.
Field Day weekend, June 24 and 25 shows a changed prediction for
June 23 to 25 with a solar flux at 78, and planetary A index of 5 on
all three days. This is improved from last week's forecast in
ARLP022 which projected a higher geomagnetic (A index) forecast and
lower solar flux.
Our usual Czech source for geomagnetic forecasts is away this week,
so here is another Czech resource with predictions for only the next
"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 9 to June 15,
Quiet:        Jun 9 to 12, 14 and 15 
Unsettled:    Jun 13 and 14 
Active:       Jun 14 and 15 
Minor storm:  possible Jun 15 
Major storm:  0 
Severe storm: 0 
Geomagnetic activity summary:
Except the last days, we expect at most quiet to unsettled
conditions till the next week. From June 13 and 14 the unsettled
conditions may be more frequent but the general activity forecast
should remain at the quiet to unsettled level.
Because the last flare occurred at the central part of solar disk,
we expect an active episode at the end of the forecast period. About
June 15, active conditions can also reach minor storm level.
Tomas Bayer 
RWC Prague 
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague 
Department of Geomagnetism 
Budkov observatory (BDV)" 
AC4G, Bruce Smith of Taft, Tennessee wrote:
"Just wanted to inform your readers that on 7 June at approximately
2100z, I heard PA2M (Netherlands) calling CQ into my area EM65,
southern Tennessee. I went down to 50.081 called CQ (CW) and began
working many European stations on 6m. When the bands finally faded
after about 2 hours, I ended up making QSOs with 18 European
stations such as PA, G, GM, and GD (were the main areas worked)."
Jim Wilson, K5ND of Grapevine, Texas wrote:
"I'm sure you're getting plenty of comments about the recent
openings on six meters. I've observed daily openings into Europe,
with no luck from Texas. But this afternoon was able to work into
Japan for the first time ever, running 100 watts, JT65, into a Moxon
antenna at 25 feet.
I wrote up my experience, along with screen shots, at
I look forward to hearing what your other readers are experiencing.
Jim Wilson"
According to Rick Lindquist, WW1ME, K5ND is the organizer of the
annual Boy Scout Jamboree on the Air. Check out the K5ND bio at, and of course his blog at
Dick Ferry, K2KA of Westford, Massachusetts wrote:
"On June 7, 2017 was another epic opening on 6M. I have never seen
the band lit up like that before. NA working NA, mid-west NA working
EU. I worked 32 NA stations (wasn't hearing EU) and 2 new states
(Idaho and Wyoming). All signals were strong. Mid-west was working
JA too, so was EU. Wall to wall stations 2230Z to well beyond 2359Z.
Today June 8 the band has been open all morning again, but there
does not seem to be as much activity. We'll see how it goes.
Hoping these great conditions extend into the weekend during the
ARRL June VHF test."
W3IUU wrote:
"SWPC.NOAA.GOV does some nice alerts, watches and warnings for
ionospheric and flare events above the R1, S1 or G1 levels. I should
have saved the report for May; it is in reverse chronological order
for a month at a time. Anyway, it showed that the K index went to 5
just after 2200Z on the May 27, as I remember, to 6 after 2300Z, and
to 7 at I think around 0430Z.
Around 0300Z we had strong signals from the Washington, DC area to
several points west on 20, and to the west coast and out to ZL and
VK on 15. WWV was very loud on 20 MHz, with some flutter on their
signal; but not really audible on 25 MHz. One Texas beacon was still
copiable on 10 meters; I probably missed a lot of 10-meter action
before or after that time.
Having heard some of this during severe disturbances in the late
1950s while living in Iowa, I think some of this is auroral E layer
propagation, multi-hop in some cases. At least the E layer needs to
be factored into the mix.
Lloyd Rasmussen, W3IUU, Kensington, MD" 
George Hall, N2CG of Saddle Brook, New Jersey wrote in a message
titled "June 7 2017 Long Hours of Single and multi-hop 6 meter E's
"I'm located in Northern New Jersey FN20wv and I knew earlier in the
day on June 7th that there was ongoing US East Coast and Midwest 6m
openings to Europe by observing the spotting websites on my tablet
at work. However by the time I got home from work at 6 PM EDT
(2200Z) the band shifted to single and double hop Es openings over a
large part of the US and Canada.
A few minutes after 2200Z I turned on my rig and I immediately
started hearing the VE4VHF beacon in Winnipeg, MB EN19 on 50.036 MHz
with a true 599+ signal report. Shortly after I began tuning around
and began hearing several more beacons, all with RST 589 to 599+
signals as follows: W9JN/B 50.062 MHz EN54, N8PUM/B 50.068 MHz EN66,
and K0KP/B 50.073 MHz EN36. So, based on the signal strength of
these beacons I knew I was in store for a good 6m band opening but
had no idea how long this opening would last.
During the course of the next 6-1/2+ hours I worked on CW or SSB
mode stations in WA, OR, MT, ID, WI, MN, IL, KS, MO, TN, KY, GA and
AL. I most likely would have easily worked more stations but I had
to go QRT for over 2 hours and when I got back on the air at 0035Z
(08 June) I thought perhaps the "wireworks" would be over... but
that was NOT the case. I was pleasantly surprised to hear the band
was still wide open to the Midwest as well as the Pacific Northwest.
Around 0130Z I started hearing the N0LL beacon on 50.078 MHz in EM09
and remained coming in to my QTH for over 2 hours with signal
strength ranging from RST 559 to 579.
I don't work the JT digital modes but I know those ops were also
very busy because I monitored their frequencies (50.276 to 50.280
MHz) several times during the opening and I could hear their
warbling signal tones indicating much JT digital mode activity.
The 2017 Es Season started off very slow for me and I missed the big
Es opening to Europe and elsewhere when I was attending the
Hamvention in Xenia Ohio a few weekends ago. This June 7th Es
opening sure made up for my slow start of this year's Es Season for
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
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bulletins are at
Sunspot numbers for June 1 through 7, 2017 were 18, 19, 22, 23, 22,
18, and 13, with a mean of 19.3. 10.7 cm flux was 75.7, 78.2, 77.9,
77.7, 79.4, 75.4, and 75.5 with a mean of 77.1.  Estimated planetary
A indices were 7, 5, 9, 3, 5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 5.6.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 6, 9, 3, 5, 5, and 5, with
a mean of 5.6.