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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP044 (2018)

ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44  ARLP044
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 2, 2018
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

At 2347 UTC on November 1 the Australia Space Weather Service issued
this warning:

"Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active to minor storm
levels on UT day 03 November and active levels on 04 November. The
disturbance is due to the expected arrival of CIR (a Co-rotating
Interaction Region) and HSS (High Speed Stream) associated with a
large recurrent equatorial coronal hole. The approaching coronal
hole has produced solar winds reaching 650 km/s at the location of
STEREO-A. Similar effects are expected at Earth."

03 Nov:  Active
04 Nov:  Unsettled to Active

For more on HSS and CIR:

In related news, reported:

"GEOMAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED: NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is
monitoring a large hole in the Sun's atmosphere, now directly facing
Earth. A stream of solar wind escaping from the opening is expected
to reach our planet during the late hours of November 3, likely
sparking minor G1-class geomagnetic storms over the weekend. Visit for more information and updates."

Another week passed with no sunspots, yet we received numerous
reports of favorable HF propagation.

Average daily solar flux declined from 70.4 to 68.6. Geomagnetic
indicators were quiet, up only slightly from the previous seven
days. Planetary A index rose from 3.3 to 4.4, and middle latitude A
index from 2.1 to 3.4.

Solar activity will probably bottom out in the next couple of years.
But where are we compared to the previous solar minimum? For the
month of October, average daily sunspot number was only 4.5. Looking
back, the average October sunspot numbers for 2007-2018 were 1.3,
5.2, 7, 35, 116.9, 73.8, 127.2, 92.1, 59.6, 29.1, 12.9 and 4.5. So
in terms of sunspot numbers, it appears we may be at about the same
level of activity as the period from 2007-2008.

Predicted solar flux for the short term is 67 on November 2-8, 68 on
November 9, 70 on November 10-17, 69 on November 18-19, 68 on
November 20 through December 2, 70 on December 3-14, and 69 on
December 15-16.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 2, then 25, 20, 15, 12,
8 and 5 on November 3-8, then 8 on November 9-10, 10 on November 11,
5 on November 12-13, then 12 on November 14, 5 on November 15-24,
then 8, 12 and 10 on November 25-27, 5 on November 28-29, 20 on
November 30, 15 on December 1-3, then 8, 5, 12, 8 and 10 on December
4-8, and 5 on December 9-16.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 2-28, 2018
from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on November 2, 12-14, 19-20
Quiet to unsettled on November 7-8, 15-16, 23-25, 28
Quiet to active on November 6, 21-22, 26
Unsettled to active on November 4-5, 9-11, 27
Active to disturbed on November 3, (6, 17-18)

"Solar wind will intensify on November 3-4, (5-6, 9,) 10-12, (17-22,)

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Predictability of forecasts remains low and their compilation is

Last Friday, October 26, Steve Sacco NN4X reported, "I've been
messing around on 15M FT8 today, and found 15M to be quite good, at
least here in Florida. I didn't realize how good until I checked"

The image Steve sent seems to show coverage over North and South
America, Europe, Greenland and elsewhere.

On October 29 Steve sent this regarding the South Atlantic Magnetic

Fred K9SO reported on October 31:

"What an opening we're having this morning! Who needs sunspots?

"Huge signals on 20 and 17m phone from Central and Eastern Europe
into my Southern Wisconsin QTH.

"Todor, LZ1WR, said it best regarding my report: 'MY GOSH! You're
coming in like my next door neighbor!'"

N0JK reported on October 29:

"Despite a solar flux of only 69, the VP6D Ducie DXpedition has been
successful working North America on 10 Meters. They had a strong
opening to North America on 10 meters October 25, and again the
afternoon of October 29. I was able to log them on 10 meter CW at
2231z October 29 while on a break from work. Set up was a FT-897 at
100 watts and a MFJ whip/magnet mount on the car from parking lot.
Nice fall day with temp 75 degree F! VP6D peaked up to 599 on 10. I
heard many Midwest stations go in their 10M log including K0TRL
Leawood, KS, who made a contact with VP6D just before me. Op was
UT6UD, who did a great job picking up weak callers and keeping the
pileup moving briskly.

"With the F2 layer MUF often below 28 MHz to Ducie from North
America, many days they were inaudible on 10 or very weak for modest
stations. Some days high power NA stations in the eastern USA worked
VP6D on 10 by beaming southeast or south, on side scatter."

Ward, N0AX pointed out a correction to my comment last week
regarding WSJT:

"WSJT is not a mode, per se.  It is a software package or suite that
supports a number of modes - JT65, JT9, FT8, etc.  The meteor
scatter mode it is currently supporting is MSK144, replacing the
older FSK441.  Fldigi is the same thing - a program that can
communicate using a large number of modes."

This weekend is the CW portion of ARRL Sweepstakes. See .

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numbers used in this bulletin, see

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at

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Sunspot numbers for October 25 through 31, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 69.4, 69.2, 69.3, 68.3,
68.8, 67.1, and 68.1, with a mean of 68.6. Estimated planetary A
indices were 6, 6, 4, 4, 3, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.4. Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 5, 6, 3, 2, 1, 4, and 3, with a mean of