ARRL

ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP045 (2005)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP45
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  October 28, 2005
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

No sunspots. The average daily sunspot number from the previous
reporting week to the current dropped six points to 7.7. There have
been no visible sunspots over four days so far, October 24-27.
Don't expect an improvement for the CQ Worldwide DX SSB Contest this
weekend. Thankfully geomagnetic conditions are stable, and the
longer nights as we head toward winter solstice are good for 160, 80
and 60 meter operation.

Solar flux should remain around 70 over the next few days, rising to
80 around November 4. The predicted planetary A index over the
weekend, October 28-31 is 15, 12, 8, and 5. Geophysical Institute
Prague predicts unsettled conditions for today, October 28,
unsettled to active conditions for Saturday October 29, and
unsettled conditions for Sunday October 30.

The week of the CQ Worldwide DX SSB contest last year had an average
sunspot number of 139, 201.4 for 2003, 150.9 for 2002, 222.7 for
2001, 148.7 in 2000 and 160.4 in 1999. The average of 7.7 for the
past week is far below any of these.

I've received a few reports of VHF openings. Scott Avery, WA6LIE
reported an October 20 6-meter opening from east coast to west coast
around 0100-0300z. It then shifted to single hop north-south between
Washington/British Columbia and California. For the same day, Jon
Jones, N0JK reported from Kansas that 6-meters was open from about
2315 to after 0400z. He worked or heard stations or beacons from
VE2, VE4, MN, SD, ID, UT, WY and CA. Jon commented that E layer
openings are uncommon in October, and these double-hop E layer
communications between east and west coasts are very rare.  At
0122z, WA6RPD in CM97 and KB6NAN in CM87 worked WZ1V in FN31.

On October 9 Steve Carpenter, KG4LDD near Knoxville, Tennessee was
listening to the Gatlinburg 2-meter repeater on 146.850 MHz and
heard KB5LTB in West Monroe Louisiana. They talked, and while the
Louisiana station was scratchy, he was also quite readable. On
October 17 through the same repeater he worked N9VX in Connersville,
Indiana, who was full-quieting into the machine.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation
of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical
Information Service propagation page at,
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. An archive of past
bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.

Sunspot numbers for October 20 through 26 were 15, 15, 13, 11, 0, 0
and 0 with a mean of 7.7. 10.7 cm flux was 76.7, 75.3, 74.7, 74.2,
73.4, 73, and 72, with a mean of 74.2. Estimated planetary A indices
were 3, 2, 6, 2, 4, 19 and 8 with a mean of 6.3. Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 2, 1, 7, 2, 3, 17 and 8, with a mean of
5.7.
NNNN
/EX