ARRL

ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP045 (2013)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP45
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 8, 2013
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity eased off over the past week, with average daily
sunspot numbers declining nearly 30 points from 161.6 to 131.7, and
average daily solar flux down over 12 points from 158.3 to 146.
Geomagnetic indicators were quiet. Still, activity remains strong.

The last three days of the reporting week (November 4-6) had
increasingly stronger sunspot numbers, all higher than the week's
average. The same is true for solar flux values, each of the past
few days with numbers higher than the average for the week.

Recently we noted a near-term peak in solar flux at 155 predicted
for November 22-25, but now that peak has moved, and values
predicted for those dates are 135-140.

A new short term peak is predicted for the next few days, at 150 on
November 8, 155 on November 9, 160 on November 10, 155 on November
11-12, 150 on November 13, 140 on November 14-15, 135 on November
16, 130 on November 17-20, 135 on November 21-22, 140 on November
23-28, 145 on November 29 through December 1, 140 on December 2, and
135 on December 3-6.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 8, 5 on November 9-10,
10 on November 11, 12 on November 12, 8 on November 13, 5 on
November 14 through December 2, 8 on December 3-4, 5 on December 5-6
and then 8, 10, 8 and 8 on December 7-10.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH believes we should see mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions on November 8, quiet to unsettled November 9, mostly
quiet November 10, active to disturbed November 11, quiet to active
November 12, quiet to unsettled November 13, mostly quiet November
14, quiet November 15-18, mostly quiet November 19, quiet November
20-25, mostly quiet November 26, quiet to unsettled November 27,
quiet to active November 28-29, quiet November 30, active to
disturbed December 1, quiet to unsettled December 2, and quiet
December 3-4.

A week ago NASA put out a revised solar cycle prediction. You can
read it at http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml. The only
difference was that the smoothed sunspot number maximum predicted
for this cycle is 65 and in Summer 2013. The change is just one
point - last month they thought it would be 66 in Fall 2013.

Why the prediction for last Summer? Because it is a smoothed sunspot
number, and that is a value taken from an average over one year. We
won't know the actual number until six months after the fact.

We heard from Bob Foster again this week. Turns out he is N9BGC of
Waverly, Iowa, and on November 1 he wrote, "Last weekend was the
hottest propagation I have heard on 10 meters and 15 meters in my 43
years as a ham. Signals were 5-9 from Kazakhstan to Japan. Hungary
was 59 in the evening on 40 meters. Mine is a very modest station: A
semi-vintage Kenwood 520SE running barefoot into a ground mounted
Gap vertical antenna."

Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas (EM28) reports that on October
31 he heard the VY0SNB beacon on 6 meters on 50.048 MHz at 1620 UTC.
This beacon is located in Nunavut, between the northern tip of
Quebec and Greenland. Jon says it was probably double-hop E-skip.

Jon also reported (in a message titled "10 Meters Hot") that back on
October 22 he worked G1HPD on 10 meter SSB at 1810 UTC. He wrote,
"We have recently moved - so I don't have any HF antennas up yet. I
noted spots that 10 was hot to Europe, so I put a stock CB mag mount
whip on the Weber 'Genesis' BBQ grill out on the patio. Used a MFJ
tuner and 10 watts. G1HPD was hitting 20 over S-9 and gave me a
'5x5' report. For good measure I also worked KG4WV Gitmo (Guantanamo
Bay, Cuba) with 59 reports."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for October 31 through November 6 were 128, 95, 123,
143, 151, 134, and 148, with a mean of 131.7. 10.7 cm flux was
142.6, 145, 141.6, 143.5, 147.3, 148.5, and 153.5, with a mean of
146. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 3, 6, 5, 5, and 4,
with a mean of 4.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 4, 3,
7, 4, 4, and 3, with a mean of 4.4.
NNNN
/EX