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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP048 (2016)

ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48  ARLP048
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 28, 2016
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

Over the past reporting week (November 17-23) average daily sunspot
numbers decreased from 28.7 to 14.1. Average daily solar flux
decreased from 78.5 to 77.1, although last week's bulletin
erroneously reported average solar flux for the November 10-16
period as 45.8. Thanks to several sharp-eyed readers who caught
this, including IK2AGX, G8XTJ, AA2F, K6MSM, and N8II.

Average daily planetary A index shifted from 12.7 to 6.4, and
average mid-latitude A index changed from 10.1 to 4.7.

Predicted solar flux from NOAA is 79 on November 25-26, 80 on
November 27-29, 79 on November 30 through December 1, 84 on December
2-4, 80 on December 5-7, 78 on December 8, 76 on December 9-14, 75
on December 15-18, 78 on December 19, 80 on December 20-22, 82 on
December 23-28 and 84 on December 29-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12 and 10 on November 25-27, 8 on
November 28-29, 10 and 8 on November 30 through December 1, 5 on
December 2-6, then 15, 12, 18, 20 and 10 on December 7-11, 5 on
December 12-17, then 8, 15 and 30 on December 18-20, then 25, 15 and
12 on December 21-23, 8 on December 24-26, and 5 on December 27-31.

OK1HH sent the following geomagnetic forecast on behalf of the Czech
Propagation Interest Group for the period November 25 to December
21, 2016:

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on December 3-6, 14-16
Mostly quiet on November 28, December 1-2, 13, 17-18
Quiet to unsettled on November 27, 30
Quiet to active on November 25-26, 29, December 7, 9. 10-12, 19, 21
Active to disturbed on December 8, 20

"Increased solar wind from coronal holes is expected on November
25-27, December 9-15, 18-21

"Reliability of predictions is reduced at present."

Thanks to Paul Merrill, W7IV for this fascinating article from NPR
about space weather.

Thanks to David Moore for this:

Bil Paul, KD6JUI sent this:

"Today, November 22, solar flux was in the 70s, but operating from
my kayak with 10w and 9' vertical dipole (see article about it in
November 2016 QST) -- 17 meters was hopping today, or should I say

"Within an hour's time I had four QSOs at length with OK, CA, and
two VEs. And was getting signal reports ranging from S5 to S9. Also
heard Brazil coming in (but couldn't land him) and probably Central
America (he had a heavy accent). There was some QSB. Being on the
water in the kayak (fresh water) seems to greatly augment my

Jon Jones, N0JK reports:

"6 meters exploded with sporadic-E in North America the evening of
November 23 and again most of Thanksgiving Day.

"Wednesday evening there was strong sporadic-E on 6 across the
southeast states. I worked K5GKC (EM13) from my mobile set up near
Kansas City (EM28) with a 10 W MFJ-9406 and 1/4 wave vertical about
0048z Nov. 24. He was quite loud. I saw some real DX spotted
including ZF1EJ and NP4BM working into New England and XE2X, XE2OK
and XE2JS to the Midwest. Did not note any Es - TEP to South
America, wonder if any readers know of any from mainland North

"Thanksgiving Day Nov. 24 again sporadic-E. I logged KV4VO (EM90)
from home in Lawrence, KS (EM28) at 1625z 11/24 on 50.130 MHz He was
running 50 W to a vertical antenna and peaked to 5x9. Saw many spots
across the southeastern states. The C6AFB/b (FL16) was spotted by
many. It is now on 50.063 MHz running only a few watts. The magnetic
field was active due to a coronal hole solar wind stream with the Kp
peaking to 5 - storm levels."

John Fitzgerald, G8XTJ noted today that the planetary K index was 5,
and this didn't look too promising for the CQ World-Wide CW Contest
this weekend, "though 6Y9X a good 579 on 10MHz as I type 1044 UTC."

Jeff, N8II in West Virginia wrote:

"The skip zones were very long for ARRL Sweepstakes SSB, even worse
than CW, but I still managed to make a lot of QSOs. Stations closer
than NY or NC were difficult to work on any band from early evening
into the night on Sunday and same happened a bit later Saturday. The
K index stayed around 1, I think, so western Canada and AK were
fairly easy to work at least on 20M and western Canada strong at
times on 15, best 15M conditions were in 1700Z hour."

As noted above by G8TXJ, the CQ World-Wide CW Contest is this
weekend.  See for rules. Also note
this interesting analysis of SSB signal quality (although the SSB
contest was at the end of October) .

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For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at, For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at

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bulletins are at

Sunspot numbers for November 17 through 23 were 27, 28, 22, 11, 0,
0, and 11, with a mean of 28.7. 10.7 cm flux was 78.6, 77.6, 76.8,
76.4, 75, 77.3, and 77.7, with a mean of 78.5. Estimated planetary A
indices were 4, 3, 3, 4, 6, 12, and 13, with a mean of 12.7.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 2, 2, 4, 9, and 11, with
a mean of 10.1.