ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP052 (2014)

ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52  ARLP052
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  December 29, 2014
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity was a mixed bag over the week of December 18-24
compared to the previous seven days. Average daily sunspot numbers
were down 12.5 points to 132.9, while average daily solar flux rose
22.9 points to 190.6.

A peak of geomagnetic activity occurred on December 22 and 24, with
planetary A index at 20 and 17. Three CMEs hit earth on December

The latest prediction (December 25) from NOAA/USAF forecasters has
solar flux at 140 December 26, 145 December 27-28, 150 December
29-31, and 140 January 1-3. After that it climbs, from 145, 150, and
155, January 4-6, then 165, 170, 175 and 180 January 7-10, 185
January 11-12, 190 and 200 January 13-14, 205 January 15-17, then
peaks at 210 on January 18. Flux values then decline to a low of 140
on January 18-20.

Predicted planetary A index from the same source is 5 on December
26, 8 on December 27, 10 on December 28 through January 1, then 12,
25, 15 and 10 on January 2-5, 8 on January 6-7, 10 on January 8-9, 8
on January 10-11, and 5 on January 12-18.

OK1HH sends his weekly geomagnetic forecast, which calls for quiet
conditions December 26, mostly quiet December 27, quiet to unsettled
December 28-30, mostly quiet December 31, quiet to unsettled January
1, quiet to active January 2, active to disturbed January 3-4, quiet
to active January 5-6, quiet January 7, quiet to active January 8,
quiet to unsettled January 9, quiet to active January 10, quiet to
unsettled January 11, active to disturbed January 12, mostly quiet
January 13-14, quiet January 15-17, active to disturbed January 18,
mostly quiet January 19, quiet to unsettled January 20, and quiet to
active January 21.

Lee, W4KUT said he was unable to participate in the recent ARRL 10
Meter Contest, but "I did venture into 28 MHz CW territory and, WOW!
I sent a quick response to a CQ from W1AW/7 (Comstock, NV) 2329 UTC
on December 12, S9+ on both ends.

"I tell you, I've got to do more 10M activity. The band is hot these

"I would urge American Hams with a Tech license or better, to check
out 10 Meters, and yes, 10 Meters is available to Technician
Licensees; CW, RTTY/Data and Phone (SSB).

"According to the ARRL website: 28.000-28.300 MHz: CW,
RTTY/Data--Maximum power 200 watts PEP 28.300-28.500 MHz: CW,
Phone--Maximum power 200 watts PEP"

Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28) in Kansas writes "A strong winter Es opening
on 50 MHz between the Midwest and eastern states December 19 from
1430-1730z. Here in eastern Kansas, K1RO FN33 and K2UU FN30 were
very loud around 1600z. No links noted to F2 to Europe or Africa."

Jon is a frequent contributor to this bulletin, and he also writes
"The World Above 50 MHz" column for QST Magazine.

The site gives some
details about the column and a little bit of history, where it says
it "has appeared in QST for more than 60 years, making it one of the
longest running columns. It originated as 'On the Ultra Highs,'
which debuted in December 1939 under the direction of Ed Tilton,

While true the column has run for more than 60 years, currently it
has run for over 75 years. It says that W1HDQ was the first
columnist, and I've mentioned before that Ed was also the author of
this weekly bulletin until 1991, when Ed became ill, and I offered
to write the bulletin for one week. I've been at it ever since, and
I expect that Ed was the original originator of this bulletin, but I
can't find anyone who knows when it began. I first copied it on CW
from W1AW in 1966, when I was a very young ham.

From time to time I've paged through my old QSTs from the 1950s and
1960s looking for a reference to the bulletin, but have found none.
Maybe it is time to apply some modern search tools to the effort.

Check out to hear real time audio
related to meteor activity. This site is run by Chip Sufitchi, N2YO,
who is in the Washington DC area, and uses an SDR receiver tuned to
55.23693 MHz with a Yagi pointed toward a channel 2 television tower
in Canada. The page also features both a spectral and a waterfall

Here is an interesting article from the Daily Mail about a new space
telescope: .

One more report came in concerning working Bob, ZL1RS on 6 meters,
reported in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP051. Bob
Miles, K9IL in Martin, Tennessee (EM56) wrote on December 19 that he
heard ZL1RS as good as 579 over three evenings around 0100 UTC.

This is the last propagation bulletin of 2014, and on a personal
note, back in 1999 in propagation bulletin 52 I made a brief mention
of completing my seventeenth season playing the Grandfather
character in Pacific Northwest Ballet's lavish production of

And now we come to the end of the run. This weekend I am completing
my thirty-second season in this same role, but this is the final
year of this production, and my character doesn't appear in the
brand new 2015 production. This began for me with a series of
unlikely events in 1983 when Don Walter, W7NG recommended me for
this role in a brand new Nutcracker with sets and costumes by
children's book author and illustrator Maurice Sendak. It was a huge
hit, and as many as 46 performances are done (but I am not in all of
them) every December. The house holds an audience of 3,000 people.
This became hugely popular, so now that this is ending, every
performance has sold out. By noon the day after Thanksgiving, ticket
sales for this final Nutcracker hit seven-million dollars.

Every Christmas Eve we perform an alternative version, The Nutty
Nutcracker, with all kinds of gags and pratfalls, improvised and
with no rehearsal. On December 25, 2013 this photo appeared in the
Seattle Times:

That's me in the brown coat, leaning back in shock, as I did not
know that the dancer crouching down on the right was going to
release a can of "Silly String" from an aerosol container in his
right hand, nor did I know that photos were taken. I sneak up on him
as he is about to let go with a tremendous dramatic sneeze while
facing the audience downstage center so that I can react and express
annoyance. He held the can so it appeared that it all projected from
his face.

On opening night this year at the end of November I gave a backstage
tour to a writer, who came up with this:

Just click on the Christmas tree to see the article.

Here is an article about the big change:

I will be sad after the final last performance, which begins at 2330
UTC on Sunday, December 28. I am the only player remaining from the
premiere season, and won't know what to do with myself in December
2015. But I love this company so much that I may come back as a
volunteer Kid Wrangler, herding the children from dressing rooms to
the stage and back. I am sad, but not bitter. It has been an
incredible run, far beyond what I ever could imagine!

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at,

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at

Sunspot numbers for December 18 through 24 were 168, 156, 120, 159,
113, 128, and 86, with a mean of 132.9. 10.7 cm flux was 213.2,
215.7, 203.2, 205.8, 179.2, 165.9, and 151.4, with a mean of 190.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 8, 9, 14, 20, 13, and 17, with
a mean of 12.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 6, 6, 10,
13, 8, and 12, with a mean of 8.6.