ARRL

ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP009 (2014)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009
ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP09
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9  ARLP009
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  February 28, 2014
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP009
ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

We saw an increase in solar activity over the past week, and it
appears that perhaps the second peak of Solar Cycle 24 is not over.

Average daily sunspot numbers from February 20-26 increased nearly
24 percent from the previous seven days, from 140.4 to 173.6.
Average daily solar flux over the same period rose from 158.7 to
167.3. On Thursday, February 27, the sunspot number increased from
197 on Wednesday to 227, which is over 30 percent above the average
for the previous seven days.

Predicted solar flux over the near term is 175 on February 28, 175
on March 1-2, 165 on March 3-5, 170 on March 6, 175 on March 7, 180
on March 8-9, then 175 and 160 on March 10-11, 145 on March 12-13,
150 on March 14-17, and 155 on March 18-20, peaking at 180 on March
26 and again on April 2-4.

Predicted planetary A index is 25 and 8 on February 28 and March 1,
5 on March 2-6, 8 on March 7, 5 on March 8, 10 and 5 on March 9-10,
8 on March 11, and 5 on March 12-22. An echo of recent flare
activity shows about 28 days later as a planetary A index of 15 on
March 27-28.

OK1HH predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet on February 28
through March 4, mostly quiet March 5, active to disturbed March 6,
quiet to active March 7, active to disturbed March 8, quiet to
unsettled March 9, mostly quiet March 10, quiet March 11-14, quiet
to active March 15-16, mostly quiet March 17-18, and active to
disturbed on March 19.

On Thursday, February 27 a CME hit Earth at 1645 UTC. This was from
the X4.9 solar flare reported February 25. The planetary A index
increased to 24, which was the same reading for Alaska's college A
index.  Mid-latitude A index was 15.

If you look at the Daily Sun image on the left side of the page at
http://spaceweather.com/ you will see it is peppered with sunspots.
Unfortunately, sunspots in this cycle have not been very energetic,
so we haven't seen much of the higher MUF figures normally
associated with this many spots.

There is a new aurora prediction tool online at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/ .  OVATION was developed at the
Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, and passed on to us by
Robert Steenburgh, KA8JBY who works at NOAA.

No email from readers this week, for the first time in ages, so
nothing to report from the field.

Tonight begins the phone weekend for the ARRL International SSB DX
Contest. It runs from March 1-2, 2014, which is actually 4:00 PM
Friday through 3:59 PM Sunday here on the West Coast. See
http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx for details.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for February 20 through 26 were 140, 152, 179, 185,
205, 157, and 197, with a mean of 173.6. 10.7 cm flux was 156.4,
156.8, 163.2, 171.8, 170.7, 173.9, and 178.2, with a mean of 167.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 39, 12, 14, 17, 7, 4, and 4, with
a mean of 13.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 27, 9, 11, 12,
5, 3, and 3, with a mean of 10.
NNNN
/EX