ARRL

ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP018 (1996)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de KT7H

ZCZC AP39
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18  ARLP018
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  May 3, 1996
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de KT7H

Every day last week except for April 28 had a sunspot number of
zero.  The solar flux on each day was below the average value for
the previous 90 days, which was 71 at the start of the week and 70
at the end.  All of this shows a continued downward trend in solar
activity.

Because activity is so flat, this makes it difficult to predict
changes in activity over the next few weeks, since this is always
based on a solar rotation with activity recurring every 28.5 days.

Solar flux is expected to increase slowly to above 70 around May 6,
peak around the mid-seventies around May 11, and drop below 70 after
May 18.  Look for disturbed conditions around May 11 to 16, with the
worst conditions centered around May 14 and 15.

Because of lengthening days, low frequency DX is declining, and 20
meters should be better for DX, even with the low solar activity.

Sunspot Numbers for April 25 through May 1 were 0, 0, 0, 13, 0, 0
and 0, with a mean of 1.9.  10.7 cm flux was 67.8, 68.2, 68.2, 67.7,
68.4, 68.5 and 67.9, with a mean of 68.1.
NNNN
/EX