ARRL

Secure Site Login

ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP018 (2016)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP18
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18  ARLP018
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  April 29, 2016
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

At 0121 UTC on April 29 the Australian Space Forecast Centre
released a geomagnetic disturbance warning for April 30 and May 1.
Increased geomagnetic activity is predicted due to high speed solar
wind coming from a coronal hole. There is a chance of minor storm
levels.

Over the past reporting week (April 21-27), average daily sunspot
numbers rose from 40 to 43.3, and average daily solar flux declined
from 100.8 to 81.9. This is compared to the previous seven days.

Average planetary A index went from 10.9 to 9.4, and average
mid-latitude A index rose from 8.9 to 11.6.

Predicted solar flux (from the Thursday April 28 forecast) is 95 on
April 29-30, 92 on May 1-2, 90 on May 3-4, 95 on May 5-10, 100 on
May 11, 95 on May 12-15, 82 on May 16-24, 80 on May 25, 82 on May
26-29, and 95 on May 30 through June 6.

Predicted planetary A index (also from April 28) is 14, 26, 20, 8
and 5 on April 29 through May 3, then 12 on May 4-5, 10 on May 6,
then 5 on May 7-8, then 18, 25 and 20 on May 9-11, and 8, 5 and 12
on May 12-14, 5 on May 15-18, then 12, 15 and 12 on May 19-21, 8 on
May 22-23, 5 on May 24-25, then 10, 18 and 12 on May 26-28, and 5 on
May 29-30, 12 on May 31, and 5 again on June 1-4.

Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sends
the following geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April
29-May 25, 2016.

Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on May 6-7, 16-17
Mostly Quiet on May 1-3, 8, 15, 22-25
Quiet to Unsettled on May 12-13, 18, 21
Quiet to Active on April 29, May 4-5, 9-11, 14, 19-20
Active to Disturbed on April 30, May (9-10)

Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected on April
29-30, May 4-5, 8-11, 19-21

Remarks: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity
enhancement.

NASA released a video of an April 17 solar flare:

http://bit.ly/1WU1nOO

Ted Leaf, K6HI of Kona sent this similar item:

http://earthsky.org/space/stunning-view-of-solar-flare-april17-2016?

Spaceweather.com reports Earth will cross a fold in the heliospheric
current sheet on April 29 or 30.

http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/HCS.html

They go on to report, "This is called a 'solar sector boundary
crossing,' and it could trigger geomagnetic activity around Earth's
poles. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60 percent chance of G1-class
geomagnetic storms on April 29."

We see there were multiple sunspots in evidence in this view of
April 28, although none have much magnetic strength:

http://bit.ly/21gMPsW

Now on April 29, you can see the sunspots have moved in one day:

http://bit.ly/1SCKUt1

Sharp-eyed reader Red Willoughby, KC4LE of Birmingham, Alabama
noticed some averages that didn't look right in the ARRL Letter
released yesterday, April 28. He may have wondered why the average
daily solar flux was over 100, when all of the daily flux values for
the week were under 100.

I goofed. The numbers were all correct, but the averages were from
last week. Those averages have been corrected in today's bulletin.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for April 21 through 27 were 35, 22, 11, 46, 38, 65,
and 86, with a mean of 43.3. 10.7 cm flux was 76.8, 76.6, 78.7,
81.8, 81.9, 85.2, and 92.6, with a mean of 81.9. Estimated planetary
A indices were 5, 13, 12, 11, 8, 7, and 10, with a mean of 9.4.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 23, 13, 11, 11, 6, 6, and 11,
with a mean of 11.6.
NNNN
/EX