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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP033 (2016)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033
ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP33
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33  ARLP033
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  August 12, 2016
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP033
ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

After two days of no sunspots on August 3 and 4, solar activity
resumed with both sunspot number and solar flux rising into the 90s.
Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 10.7 in the last reporting
week to 52 this week (August 4 to 10).  Both averages were
suppressed by having a sunspot number of zero on the last day of the
old week and again on the first day of the most recent week.
 
Average daily solar flux rose from 72.1 to 87.9.  Average planetary
A index went from 13 to 14.6, and average mid-latitude A index from
11.9 to 13.7.
 
The latest solar flux prediction from USAF/NOAA shows 95 on August
12, 90 on August 13 to 15, 95 on August 16 to 18, then 90 and 85 on
August 19 and 20, 75 on August 21 to 26, 80 on August 27 through
September 1, then 85, 95, 100 and 105 on September 2 to 5, 100 on
September 6 to 9, 95 on September 10 to 13, with flux values
dropping to 75 on September 17 to 22 before rising again.
 
Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on August 12 and 13, 5 on
August 14 and 15, then 8, 12, 10 and 8 on August 16 to 19, 5 on
August 20 to 23, 15 on August 24 and 25, 5 on August 26 to 28, then
15, 25 and 18 on August 29 to 31, 15 on September 1 and 2, then 12,
8 and 5 on September 3 to 5, 12 on September 6 and 7, 8 on September
8, 5 on September 9 and 10 and 12 on September 11 and 12.
 
Petr Kolman, OK1MGW sends this: 
 
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 12 to September
7, 2016
 
Geomagnetic field will be: 
Quiet on August 26 and 27 
Mostly quiet on August 12 to 14, 17 and 18, 22, September 7 
Quiet to unsettled on August 15, 19, 23, 31, September 1 to 3, 6 
Quiet to active on August 16, 20 and 21, 24 and 25, 28 to 30,
September 4 and 5 
Active to disturbed on August (29 and 30) 
 
Increased solar wind from coronal holes are expected on August 20
and 21, 23 and 24, 28 to 30, September 4 and 5
 
Parenthesis means lower probability of increased activity.
 
Max White, M0VNG of Worcester, England sent this fascinating piece
from New Scientist about the US Air Force deploying micro-sats to
release plasma into the ionosphere.  This creates artificial clouds
of ionization which should improve HF propagation:
 
http://bit.ly/2bmCugb
 
Richard Ferry, K2KA of Westford, Massachusetts worked HH2AA, call
sign of Radio Club D'Haiti, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti at 1552 UTC on
August 9, 2016.  This was a 6 meter CW QSO.
 
15 minutes later it's confirmed on LOTW!!!
 
That is awesome and for the life of me can't figure out why it takes
some stations months to upload to LOTW?
 
I upload every day.
 
I believe the club station at HH2AA is an HF remote base station,
and they have devised some way to automatically send confirmations
to LOTW, frequently and in real time.
 
"Later in the day I worked Europe, nothing new but did work CT1HZE
at 1827Z and heard CS5BALG/B.
 
I also worked CO8LY on July 24th at 0021 on JT65 and again on CW on
July 25 at 1447Z.  He also has a good QSL system.  Send to his
manager EA7ADH.  Have worked him on 40M thru 6M now.  Always get a
card.
 
My station here is the ICOM IC-7700 (160 to 6, 200W), 7100 (160 to
70CM 100W), Ameritron AL811H for 160 to 10M, Dipoles on HF bands, 5
el M2 6 meter Yagi at 40 ft., 10 el and 19 el on 2M and 70cm at 30
ft."
 
In 1967, the US government mis-interpreted a strong solar storm and
thought the Soviet Union was jamming all our radar.  Allegedly this
took us to the brink of Armageddon.
 
http://bit.ly/2aPNOP0
 
http://bit.ly/2bh7QQV
 
Thanks to Max White and David Moore for the above articles.
 
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
 
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
 
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
 
Sunspot numbers for August 4 through 10 were 0, 36, 33, 63, 91, 72,
and 69, with a mean of 52.  10.7 cm flux was 76.3, 79.8, 83.1, 92.7,
96.4, 92.3, and 95, with a mean of 87.9.  Estimated planetary A
indices were 18, 16, 14, 12, 12, 14, and 16, with a mean of 14.6.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 17, 16, 13, 12, 9, 15, and 14
with a mean of 13.7.
NNNN
/EX