ARRL

ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP037 (2013)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP037
ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP37
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37  ARLP037
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  September 13, 2013
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP037
ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity was very, very quiet over the past week. For the
reporting period September 5-11, the average daily sunspot number
was only 37.7. Average daily sunspot numbers as reported in this
bulletin have not been nearly this low since Propagation Forecast
Bulletin ARLP024, reporting for June 6-12 of this year, when it was
39.6. The last time it was lower was June 21-27 of last year, when
it was 26.3, as reported in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP026 in
2012.

Australia's IPS Radio and Space Services issued a geomagnetic
disturbance warning at 2330 UTC on September 11. They expect
increased geomagnetic activity due to a high speed solar wind stream
spewing forth from a coronal hole. Coronal holes are magnetic gaps
in our Sun's corona which allow some of the Sun's tremendous energy
to blast out into space. Occasionally some of it reaches our planet,
depending on which way the hole points.

Australia's IPS expects unsettled to active conditions on September
12, with a chance of isolated minor storm levels, unsettled to
active conditions again on September 13, and quiet to unsettled
conditions on September 14.

Predicted planetary A index from NOAA/USAF is 15 and 8 on September
13-14, 5 on September 15-16, 15 and 10 on September 17-18, 15 and 8
on September 19-20, 5 on September 21-25, 10 and 15 on September
26-27, 10 on September 28-29, and 5 on September 30 through October
5.

Predicted solar flux is 95 on September 13, 100 on September 14-17,
105 on September 18-20, 120 on September 21-22, 115 on September
23-30, then 110, 105 and 100 on October 1-3. It then goes to a
minimum of 95 on October 4-5, and rises to a maximum of 120 on
October 18-19.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group predicts
geomagnetic conditions will be quiet today on September 13, mostly
quiet September 14, quiet again on September 15-16, quiet to active
September 17, active to disturbed September 18, quiet to unsettled
September 19-21, mostly quiet again on September 22, quiet to active
September 23, quiet again on September 24-25, mostly quiet September
26, active to disturbed September 27, quiet to active September 28,
mostly quiet September 29, quiet again on September 30, quiet to
active October 1, and quiet again on October 2.

A fascinating article appears this weekend concerning reconciliation
of various sunspot records, on the http://HispanicBusiness.com web
site, which might seem a little odd, but of course we welcome good
verifiable information wherever we can find it. Read it at
http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/2013/9/12/spot_of_bother.htm
but note that you may have to click on the URL twice. First time for
me, I saw it redirect to another page on the site, but a second
click goes to the article, "Spot of Bother," by Brian Owens, dated
September 14, 2013.

Another interesting article, this time (yet again) concerning our
Sun's shifting polarity:

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2013/09/the_suns_poles_are_switching_p.html.

Jeff Hartley, N8II wrote on September 11 from West Virginia
(FM19cj): "Back on August 30 there was some Es excitement with
unusual openings into Bear Island, JW9JKA (Svalbard, see
http://dx-world.net/2013/jw9jka-bear-island-svalbard/) on 12 meter
phone at 1823 UTC, then around 2100 UTC S5 (Slovenia) and F (France)
were worked on 12 meter phone as well as EI6JK (59) and DL5RBW (2212
UTC) on 10 meter phone with good signals as well as DL5AXX on
scatter over the South Atlantic and IZ3NYG direct path on 10 CW.
Also logged on 10 meters was EA8YB S9+ on SSB.

"15 meters in the past 10 days has been open well to EU between
about 1300-2000 UTC, sometimes much later and to Asia well after
sunset on good days as well as to Indonesia in our mornings along
with SE Asia.

"12 meters has been in and out to EU with 10 meters mostly only open
to SA and the south Pacific in the evening and late afternoon. On
Sept 5, 12 meters opened well to all of EU except Russia logging YL,
4Z, 9A, S5, EG9 (Ceuta),and DL between 1528-1834 UTC. XW8XZ was
worked on 15 phone earlier at 1336 UTC with an S5 signal.

"HS0 and XW0YJY were loud on 15 phone around 0050 UTC on the
September 8.

"On the September 10, I had a nice run of stations on 12 CW from
1427-1452 UTC including many fairly weak Russians south of Moscow in
the third call area.

"FO/KH0PR has been worked several times on 10 CW making a rare IOTA
tour including today, September 11 at 1846 UTC.

"12 meters seems to open well to EU some days and poorly others when
the SFI is around 100 and K index is low, very difficult to predict.
If the flux jumps up to around 120, 10 meters should come to life."

Note we are only nine days away from the Autumnal Equinox, on
September 22, 2013, at 2044 UTC. As we move from Summer toward Fall,
HF propagation generally improves. For example, if we run a
projection using W6ELprop for two months earlier on August 22 using
a smoothed sunspot number of 100 from Central California to Japan,
10 meters looks marginal from 2130-0130 UTC. But with the same
sunspot number on September 22, conditions look excellent at
2100-0100 UTC and very good from 0100-0300 UTC.

Similarly, on the same dates, from Atlanta, Georgia to Spain on 12
meters on August 22, conditions on 12 meters look fairly good at
1430-2300 UTC. But two months later, signals should be excellent
from 1230-2200 UTC on 12 meters over the same path.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for September 5 through 11 were 75, 41, 35, 24, 13,
23, and 53, with a mean of 37.7. 10.7 cm flux was 110.1, 101.3,
98.5, 95.7, 94.3, 94.9, and 92.8, with a mean of 98.2. Estimated
planetary A indices were 4, 5, 4, 6, 4, 7, and 6, with a mean of
5.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 5, 4, 6, 4, 6, and 6,
with a mean of 4.9.
NNNN
/EX