ARRL

ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP043 (1997)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7VVV

ZCZC AP43
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43  ARLP043
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA  October 24, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7VVV

Unfortunately, solar activity is continuing its downward drift,
which was unexpected following the recent hopeful signs from solar
cycle 23.  Average solar flux was off about one point last week
referenced to the previous week, and sunspot numbers are down as
well.  Solar flux on the last four days of this week has been below
the average for the previous ninety days, which is never a good
sign.

The only consolation has been stable geomagnetic conditions with low
K and A indices, but this may change, since on October 21 there was
a coronal mass ejection from the Sun.  This might produce some
unstable conditions for the CQ World Wide DX SSB contest this
weekend, but forecasters are not certain.

Based on the 27.5 day solar rotation, solar flux is expected to
drift around the low eighties over the next few weeks.  On the day
that this bulletin was written, the solar flux even dipped just
below 80.  The solar flux has not been this low in about two months.

Sunspot Numbers for October 16 through 22 were 45, 52, 45, 37, 25,
27 and 13 with a mean of 34.9.  10.7 cm flux was 87.5, 88.2, 86.6,
85.3, 82.8, 85 and 80.7, with a mean of 85.2, and estimated
planetary A indices were 3, 5, 3, 3, 6, 4, and 5, with a mean of
4.1.
NNNN
/EX