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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP044 (2017)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP44
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44  ARLP044
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 3, 2017
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot number increased from 13.4 to 17.7 for the
October 26 to November 1 period, compared to the previous seven
days. The main reason for the difference was that the previous seven
days started out with two days with no sunspots, and the latter
period ended with one day of 0 sunspots, on November 1.

Predicted solar flux is 74 on November 3-4, 73 on November 5-9, 71
on November 10, 70 on November 11-13, 71 on November 14, 72 on
November 15-16, 73 and 74 on November 17-18, 75 on November 19-28,
72 on November 29-30, 70 on December 1-10, 71 on December 11, 72 on
December 12-13, then 73 and 74 on December 14-15 and 75 on December
16-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 3, 5 on November 4-5,
then 8, 16, 25, 30, 28, 25 and 8 on November 6-12, then 5 on
November 13-14, then 12, 10 and 8 on November 15-17, 5 on November
18-19, then 20 on November 20-22, 5 on November 23-27, 8 on November
28, 15 on November 29-30, then 10, 8, 5, 25 and 28 on December 1-5,
then 35, 25, 20 and 8 on December 6-9, 5 on December 10-11, then 12,
10 and 8 on December 12-14, then 5 on December 15-16 and 18 on
December 17.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 3-29, 2017
from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on November 4, 6, 12-13, 23-27
Mostly quiet on November 3, 5, 16-19
Quiet to unsettled on November 15, 20
Quiet to active on November 7, 11, 14, 22
Active to disturbed on November 8-10, (21)

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
November (3,) 9-14, 20-21

"Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Current forecasts remain less reliable."

Lately, it seems we cannot get enough of Hisako Koyama. Yet another
story appeared this week at Syfy.com:

http://bit.ly/2xT7WJj

Don't miss the links at the end of the article showing detailed
instructions for sketching sunspots.

Dr. Tamitha Skov on October 31 on You Tube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrUxUXTaL7A

The CW portion of ARRL November Sweepstakes is this weekend. The
complete package for this contest is here:

http://bit.ly/2iopVkn

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"Jeff, N8II's comments re 10 meter openings in the ARLP043
Propagation bulletin inspired me to check 10 Meters in the CQ WW SSB
contest last weekend.

"Saturday afternoon October 28 was not good in KS, with only a few
very weak LU and PYs coming through.

"Sunday Oct. 29 was much better on 10 Meters.

I set up fixed mobile with 100 W and a full size 1/4 wave whip at
1905z on 10 meters in eastern Kansas on a hilltop. Nice sunny
afternoon, temp 65 degrees. FM5BH went into the log at 1909z
followed by a very loud HI3T at 1911z, then CU4DX on 28.325 MHz for
the only European at 1912z. Over the next hour and half I logged
around 40 more stations, a mixture of Caribbean, Central America and
CE, CX, LU and PY. DX included FY5KE, PZ5K, OA4SS, HC2G and HP1XT.
Some fairly short F2 with CO8RH at 1952z and Stan, K5GO at ZF9CW in
the log at 2002z. Not bad for a solar flux of 75."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for October 26 through November 1, 2017 were 23, 23,
22, 23, 22, 11, and 0, with a mean of 17.7. 10.7 cm flux was 77.3,
76, 75.4, 75.3, 75.6, 75.4, and 72.6, with a mean of 75.4. Estimated
planetary A indices were 20, 5, 6, 4, 3, 3, and 4, with a mean of
6.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 16, 4, 5, 3, 1, 2, and 2,
with a mean of 4.7.
NNNN
/EX