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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP047 (2014)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP47
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47  ARLP047
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 21, 2014
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot numbers rose this past week nearly 14 points
to 98.9, while average daily solar flux increased 25 points to
164.4.

Predicted solar flux is 170 on November 21, 175 on November 22-23,
then 170, 155 and 150 on November 24-26, then 145, 130 and 120 on
November 27-29, 115 on November 30 through December 6, 135 and 155
on December 7-8, 165 on December 9-10, and 160 on December 11-15.
Solar flux peaks at 170 on December 17-19 and declines to 115 on
December 27-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on November 21, 10 on November 22,
12 on November 23-24, 8 on November 25, 5 on November 26 through
December 3, 12, 10 and 8 on December 4-6, 5 on December 7-10, and
10, 15, 20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 10 and 12 on December 11-19.

Petr Kolman, OK1MGW sends a geomagnetic forecast this week from the
Czech Republic. He predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to
unsettled November 21-23, mostly quiet November 24, quiet November
25-26, mostly quiet November 27-29, quiet to unsettled November 30,
active to disturbed December 1, quiet to active December 2, quiet to
unsettled December 3-4, mostly quiet December 5, quiet to active
December 6-7, quiet to unsettled December 8, mostly quiet December
9-10, quiet to unsettled December 11, quiet to active December
12-13, quiet to unsettled December 14-15, and quiet to active
December 16-17.

Petr expects an increase in solar wind on November 30 through
December 2 and December 11-13.

David Moore sent this article with time-lapse video of that huge
sunspot:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/11/sunspot-time-lapse-ar-2192_n_6137490.html
.

Jon Jones N0JK reported that on November 10, Mike White, K7ULS in
Utah worked KH6U and KH6/K6MIO on 6 meters via F2 propagation using
a ground mounted Ringo Ranger vertical. But take a look at
http://www.qrz.com/db/k7uls . There is a nice photo of that antenna,
which is 8,000 feet above sea level! Mike is running 100 watts, and
told me both contacts were on SSB.

Yet another article and video about mammoth sunspots is in Phil
Plait's Bad Astronomy blog at,
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/11/16/sdo_and_sunspot_2192_amazing_hi_def_video.html

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for November 13 through 19 were 104, 117, 100, 91,
95, 92, and 72, with a mean of 98.9. 10.7 cm flux was 153.5, 161,
160.6, 171.5, 167.5, 167.4, and 169.6, with a mean of 164.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 12, 17, 22, 12, 11, and 8,
with a mean of 12.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 9, 13,
18, 8, 9, and 6, with a mean of 9.6.
NNNN
/EX