ARRL

ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP048 (2013)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP48
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48  ARLP048
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 27, 2013
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

Because of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, we have a shortened
bulletin two days early, and another one will follow on Monday,
December 2 which will contain the data for our regular reporting
week, which is November 21-27.

But being one day short of a full week of data, we can see that so
far, the average sunspot number for November 21-26 fell 131.8 points
to 61.5, and average daily solar flux declined from 166.9 to 130.2.
We all hope it comes back. Those numbers are compared to the
previous seven days reported in last week's bulletin, November
14-20.

The latest prediction has solar flux at 120 on November 27-30, 125
on December 1-2, 130 and 140 on December 3-4, 150 on December 5-6,
155 on December 7, 165 on December 8-14, then 160, 155 and 145 on
December 15-17 and 140 on December 18-19. Predicted planetary A
index is 8 on November 27, 5 on November 28 through December 3, 10
and 5 on December 4-5, then 15, 15 and 12 on December 6-8, 5 on
December 9-12, 10 and 8 on December 13-14, and 5 on December 15-21.

Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas reported: "I corresponded with
Pat, WA5IYX about the November 9, 2013 opening.

"The November 9, 2013 6 meter F2 opening for North America to the
Caribbean and northern South America was unique as it is probably
the first morning F2 opening of Solar Cycle 24. There were a number
of these 'morning F2' openings in Solar Cycles 22 and 23. Most
frequent in the late fall and winter months, and often after or
during a geomagnetic storm. Pat, WA5IYX reminded me of a much bigger
opening like this on November 8-9, 1991. I recall working Africa,
Central and South America in the morning, followed by Hawaii then
Australia in the afternoon on 6 meters. The 2013 opening dissipated
before moving west to the South Pacific.

"Pat's log of the November, 1991 event can be found at,
http://www.qsl.net/wa5iyx/11081091.txt

"As for recent HF propagation, 10 meters was very good Sunday in the
ARRL Sweepstakes. Rare sections such as Northwest Territories
(VE8EV), Alaska, Canadian Maritime (VY2ZM), Puerto Rico and Virgin
Islands were loud."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
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