ARRL

ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP049 (2006)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP49
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49  ARLP049
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 27, 2006
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

This issue of the propagation bulletin is released on an irregular
schedule because of the Thanksgiving holiday. ARLP048 was released
two days early, but not late enough to include a full week of solar
and geomagnetic data, so the numbers were the same as in ARLP047.

This bulletin has the updated numbers from November 16-22. This
Friday, December 1, Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP050 will come
out on the regular schedule with solar data from November 23-29.

As predicted, a solar wind stream activated geomagnetic indices over
the weekend during the CW portion of the CQ Worldwide DX Contest.
Conditions weren't bad though, just unsettled at higher latitudes.
The mid-latitude A index for November 24-26 was only 10, 10 and 9,
but the planetary A index was 21, 15 and 15 and the high-latitude
college A index was 32, 21 and 17. A check of activity on
http://dx.dxers.info/ over the weekend showed plenty of 10-meter
reports, so perhaps there will be propagation for the ARRL 10 Meter
Contest on December 9-10, even now toward the bottom of the sunspot
cycle.

We saw three days of zero sunspots on November 22-24, but a new
sunspot 926 appeared over the weekend. We should expect sunspot
numbers above 12 over the next few days, with low geomagnetic
activity. The U.S. Air Force predicts solar flux around 80 for the
next 10 days, and a planetary A index around 5 until December 6.
The next recurring coronal hole expected to push up the geomagnetic
indicators should have maximum effect around December 7, a couple of
days before the ARRL 10 Meter Contest.

Ken Kuzenski, AC4RD of Raleigh, North Carolina hasn't been on the
air for the past few years, but a few weeks ago began using PSK31.
He's been using it on 12 meters with 30 watts and a low horizontal
loop. He wrote that a couple of weeks ago he was working a station
in California around 2200-2300z on 12-meter PSK, and when the other
station dropped out, he assumed the band was closing but then was
called by a ZL station. He writes, "I didn't know to be surprised,
not being familiar with the state of propagation lately."

Joe Wonoski, N1KHB of Guilford, Connecticut suggested a link in each
issue of this bulletin to the propagation charts on the ARRL web
site. "I like those charts as do many others, and though general as
they are can still be a useful resource," said Joe. And so below, it
now appears. Joe has a volunteer appointment in the ARRL Field
Organization as a Technical Coordinator in the Connecticut Section.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at,
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see,
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ .
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Sunspot numbers for November 16 through 22 were 42, 38, 39, 38, 33,
11 and 0 with a mean of 28.7. 10.7 cm flux was 94.1, 89.5, 88.8,
84.9, 80.5, 77.5, and 76.5, with a mean of 84.5. Estimated planetary
A indices were 8, 5, 2, 3, 2, 1 and 4 with a mean of 3.6. Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 0, 2, 1, 1 and 3, with a mean of
2.1.
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/EX